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Six Decades of Rainfall Variability in North-Eastern Senegal: Seasonal Variations, Intra-Seasonal Dry Spells and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies (1963-2020)
Co écrit E. Faye, C. Diop & M. Saqalli
Publié le 9 juin 2026 – Mis à jour le 9 juin 2026
This study shows that spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in northeastern Senegal have a significant impact on agricultural systems, leading farmers to develop various adaptation strategies such as expanding cowpea cultivation, diversifying activities, and adopting irrigation.
Abstract
Rainfall variability and its impacts on cropping systems are major challenges for Sahelian agro-ecosystems. This study analyses rainfall variability in north-eastern Senegal over the period 1963-2020 and examines the resulting agricultural dynamics using an approach that combines statistical analyses of climate and agricultural time series with field surveys. The Pettitt, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to annual rainfall series, seasonal characteristics and agricultural indicators for millet and cowpea across five weather stations and departments. The results reveal a partial and spatially differentiated recovery in rainfall since the 1990s, statistically significant only at Kanel (break in 1998, +32%, p = 0.0004), accompanied by an earlier onset of the rainy season and a reduction in prolonged dry spells in Matam and Ranérou. This recovery contrasts with the persistent decline observed in Podor, characterised by a 28.3% decrease in annual rainfall, a nine-day shortening of the season and a drastic 79.3% reduction in the area sown with millet. The significant Spearman’s correlation between rainfall and millet yields in Matam (Rho = 0.522, p < 0.0001) confirms the direct link between climate variability and agricultural productivity. Faced with these constraints, farmers have developed adaptation strategies, notably the dramatic expansion of cowpea cultivation in Linguère (+592% in production since 2006) and diversification into livestock farming, irrigated agriculture and migration.
Rainfall variability and its impacts on cropping systems are major challenges for Sahelian agro-ecosystems. This study analyses rainfall variability in north-eastern Senegal over the period 1963-2020 and examines the resulting agricultural dynamics using an approach that combines statistical analyses of climate and agricultural time series with field surveys. The Pettitt, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to annual rainfall series, seasonal characteristics and agricultural indicators for millet and cowpea across five weather stations and departments. The results reveal a partial and spatially differentiated recovery in rainfall since the 1990s, statistically significant only at Kanel (break in 1998, +32%, p = 0.0004), accompanied by an earlier onset of the rainy season and a reduction in prolonged dry spells in Matam and Ranérou. This recovery contrasts with the persistent decline observed in Podor, characterised by a 28.3% decrease in annual rainfall, a nine-day shortening of the season and a drastic 79.3% reduction in the area sown with millet. The significant Spearman’s correlation between rainfall and millet yields in Matam (Rho = 0.522, p < 0.0001) confirms the direct link between climate variability and agricultural productivity. Faced with these constraints, farmers have developed adaptation strategies, notably the dramatic expansion of cowpea cultivation in Linguère (+592% in production since 2006) and diversification into livestock farming, irrigated agriculture and migration.
